World On The Brink: G7 Vs. BRICS In The Quest For Dominance: Geopolitics

World On The Brink

G7 Vs. BRICS In The Quest For Dominance

GEW Intelligence Unit

Hichem Karoui (Ed.)

Global East-West (London)

Copyright © 2024 by GEW Intelligence Unit

Hichem Karoui (Editor)

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

First Printing, 2024

Contents

1 Introduction: The New World Order and the Rise of Coalition-Based Strategies

2 Historical Context and Formation of the G7

3 BRICS: Genesis and Growth of a Power Bloc

4 The Economics of Competition: Analyzing G7 and BRICS Economies

5 Geostrategic Interests and Political Dynamics in G7 Nations

6 The Pivot to Asia: BRICS’ Struggle for Influence

7 Technological Advancements and Their Impact on Global Dominance

8 Energy Resources and Environmental Policies in BRICS vs. G7

9 Cultural Diplomacy and Soft Power: Contrasting Approaches

10 Military Alliances and Defense Postures: A Comparative Study

11 New Alliances: Shifting Powers in the 21st Century

12 Trade Wars and Economic Sanctions: The Weapons of Choice

13 Public Opinion and Media Influence in Shaping International Policy

14 Emerging Markets and Future Economic Leaders: Projections for 2050

15 Cybersecurity Challenges in a Digitally Connected World

16 Migration and Human Capital: Critical Factors in Global Success

17 Healthcare, Pandemics, and International Cooperation

18 Global Terrorism and Security Measures by G7 and BRICS

19 Legal and Regulatory Frameworks: Ensuring Compliance across Borders

20 Gender Equality and Inclusivity in Global Governance

21 The Future of Education and Research Collaboration

22 Global Leadership: Who Will Guide Tomorrow’s World?

23 Conclusion: Building a More Cooperative Peaceful World

Bibliography

1

Introduction: The New World Order and the Rise of Coalition-Based Strategies

Defining the New World Order

The ‘New World Order’ concept has been a subject of intense debate and speculation in global politics. It signifies a shift in the power dynamics and alliances at an international level, redefining the traditional structures that have governed geopolitical interactions for decades. The idea of a ‘New World Order’ encompasses the evolving relationships between nation-states, non-state actors, and international organizations and the impact of technological advancements, economic interdependence, and ideological shifts on the global landscape. This paradigm shift is driven by many factors, including the rise of emerging economies, changing demographics, the proliferation of information technology, and the increasing interconnectedness of societies. The implications of this new order are far-reaching, influencing areas such as trade, security, human rights, and environmental stewardship. Moreover, the transition to a ‘New World Order’ challenges established norms and conventions, requiring innovative approaches to address complex transnational issues. Understanding and navigating this evolving global architecture is essential for policymakers, businesses, and civil society to engage in a rapidly changing world effectively. The ‘New World Order’ demands a holistic analysis of power dynamics, strategic partnerships, and institutional frameworks to adapt to the contemporary complexities of international relations. As we delve deeper into the intricate layers of this new paradigm, it becomes imperative to comprehend the intricacies of coalition-based strategies, geopolitical realignments, and the pursuit of common goals in an increasingly interconnected world. By embracing this paradigm shift with intellectual rigor and foresight, stakeholders can harness the opportunities presented by the ‘New World Order’ while mitigating potential risks and challenges.

Coalitions in Global Politics: An Overview

Global politics has witnessed a complex web of interactions where nation-states have increasingly relied on coalition-based strategies to pursue their geopolitical interests. The formation of coalitions has become a defining feature of the contemporary international system, shaping regional diplomatic, economic, and security dynamics. Coalitions, also known as alliances or partnerships, are instrumental in advancing shared objectives, mitigating risks, and amplifying influence in an interconnected world. In this section, we will delve into the nuances of global coalitions, examining their historical developments, current manifestations, and future implications. The nature of coalitions in global politics is multifaceted, encompassing diverse forms such as military alliances, economic blocs, and diplomatic collaborations. These coalitions operate on multiple levels, reflecting converging or diverging interests of participating states. It is essential to comprehend the intricacies of coalition-building, including the factors that drive nations to seek collaborative arrangements, the mechanisms through which these coalitions function, and the potential ramifications they yield. Moreover, understanding the evolving dynamics of global coalitions requires exploring power distribution, aligning values and ideologies, and pursuing collective security and prosperity. While some coalitions emerge out of necessity to address common threats or challenges, others are forged to enhance economic partnerships, trade relations, or technological innovation. As we scrutinize the landscape of global politics, it becomes evident that coalitions serve as instruments of strength and solidarity and embody contested narratives, conflicting ambitions, and power asymmetries. The composition of coalitions often reflects the interplay of historical legacies, regional rivalries, and shifting balances of power. Furthermore, the emergence of new actors and non-state entities has augmented the complexity of coalition dynamics, requiring a reevaluation of traditional paradigms and strategic calculations. In this era of rapid globalization and interdependence, the interconnectivity of issues ranging from climate change and pandemics to cybersecurity and terrorism necessitates comprehensive and inclusive coalition-building. The effectiveness of coalitions in addressing transnational challenges hinges on the consensus-building capacity, institutional frameworks, and normative standards upheld by participating members. In the subsequent sections, we will analyze specific case studies, examine the efficacy of existing coalitions, and envision the trajectory of coalition-based strategies in navigating the shifting contours of global politics.

Strategic Imperatives for Coalition Formations

Coalition formations in the contemporary global landscape are driven by myriad strategic imperatives, reflecting the complex interplay of political, economic, and security objectives. As geopolitical power dynamics evolve, nations identify various imperatives that lead them to forge coalitions with other like-minded entities. One of the primary strategic imperatives for coalition formations is the pursuit of shared interests and goals. In an era characterized by interconnected economies, addressing climate change, trade agreements, and global security threats necessitates collaborative efforts among nations with converging agendas. Moreover, coalition formations can serve as a means to enhance influence and exert leverage on the international stage. By aligning with other powerful or strategically significant actors, states seek to amplify their voices and bolster their positions in shaping the direction of global policies and regulations. Another critical imperative lies in the management of regional or transnational challenges. Whether addressing regional security concerns, mitigating economic disparities, or combating cross-border crime and terrorism, coalitions offer a platform for concerted action and resource pooling. Additionally, coalition formations often become essential in navigating power shifts and balancing hegemonic tendencies. As emerging powers continue to assert themselves and traditional powerhouses realign strategic imperatives, they prompt nations to form alliances that can counterbalance perceived threats or establish new centers of gravity within the international system. Furthermore, coalition formations present opportunities for enhancing collective capabilities and sharing the burden of everyday challenges. Collaborative ventures in defense, technological research, and infrastructure development enable the pooling of resources, knowledge, and expertise, ultimately fostering mutual growth and resilience. It is crucial to recognize that strategic imperatives for coalition formations are not static; they continually adapt to changing circumstances and emergent issues. As such, the evolution of these imperatives influences the configuration and sustainability of coalitions, thereby shaping the course of global governance and geopolitical strategies.

Major Global Players and Their Alignments

In the complex and interconnected landscape of global politics, the alignments of major global players play a pivotal role in shaping the course of international relations and power dynamics. These alignments are often rooted in historical alliances, geopolitical interests, economic dependencies, and strategic imperatives. Understanding the relationships between these critical actors provides crucial insights into the world order's current state and future trajectory. The United States, as the world’s largest economy and a traditional champion of liberal democratic values, has historically led or been a part of various coalition formations such as NATO, the G7, and other security partnerships. Its alliances across different regions, including Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, significantly influence the global balance of power. The European Union, comprising multiple influential member states, is an economic and political force with unique alliances and cooperative arrangements with global partners. Its unified approach to trade, diplomacy, and security significantly influences the world stage. Meanwhile, Russia’s historic and strategic ties with countries in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East have given rise to alliances and partnerships that both challenge and complement existing global power structures. As the world’s second-largest economy, China has established multilateral partnerships through organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS bloc while asserting its influence through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative. With its growing economic prowess and regional influence, India similarly seeks alignment in various cooperative arrangements, especially within the framework of BRICS and regional groupings in South Asia. Other major players, such as Japan, Brazil, and South Africa, actively seek and engage in alignments that serve their national interests within the context of the evolving world order. The dynamics of these alignments impact not only the political and economic landscapes but also shape crucial issues such as security, trade, technology, and global governance. As these major global players continue to navigate the complexities of international relations, their alignments will inevitably determine the direction and nature of coalition-based strategies and hold implications for the broader global community.

Economic Implications of Coalition-based Strategies

Coalition-based strategies have significant economic implications that must be carefully considered in the rapidly evolving global landscape. As significant players realign their alliances to secure economic advantages, the repercussions on trade, investment, and market dynamics become increasingly pronounced. The formation of coalitions often leads to the establishment of preferential trading blocs or economic partnerships, influencing the flow of goods, services, and capital across borders. This impacts not only the member nations but also has ripple effects on global supply chains and market competitiveness. Furthermore, coalition-based strategies can introduce complexities in international trade agreements and monetary policies as member countries coordinate their economic agendas. These coalitions may negotiate joint strategies for industrial development, technology transfer, and intellectual property rights protection, altering the traditional power structures within key industries. The economic implications extend beyond trade and production, encompassing macroeconomic stability, currency exchange rates, and fiscal policies. Moreover, they drive discussions on resource allocation, infrastructure investments, and sustainable development initiatives, shaping the trajectory of global economic growth. By leveraging collective resources and expertise, coalition-based strategies offer opportunities to address economic disparities and promote inclusive growth. However, they also pose challenges related to regulatory harmonization, taxation systems, and financial transparency, requiring careful navigation to mitigate potential drawbacks. Understanding the economic implications of coalition-based strategies is essential for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders to make informed decisions and adapt to the changing global economic order.

Political Outcomes from New Alliances

The formation of new alliances on the global stage has brought about significant political outcomes that reverberate across nations and regions, reshaping the geopolitical landscape in profound ways. As countries join coalitions, they can exercise collective influence and leverage their combined power to advance shared political objectives. These new alliances have reconfigured traditional power dynamics, challenging the established order and creating a platform for diverse voices to be heard.

One prominent political outcome stemming from new alliances is the shift in decision-making processes within international institutions and fora. As coalitions emerge as influential blocs, their ability to shape the formulation and implementation of global policies becomes more pronounced. This has resulted in a departure from unilateral decision-making by individual nations, giving rise to a more consensus-driven approach in addressing critical issues such as climate change, security, trade, and human rights.

Moreover, the political outcomes from new alliances extend to regional stability and conflict resolution. By forging strategic partnerships, nations within these coalitions are better equipped to address regional conflicts and promote stability through coordinated diplomatic efforts and peace-building initiatives. The collective weight of allied nations often serves as a deterrent to potential aggressors, fostering an environment conducive to dialogue and peaceful resolutions.

Another notable repercussion of new alliances is the amplification of soft power and cultural diplomacy on the global stage. As allied nations collaborate more closely, they engage in concerted efforts to project their values, ideologies, and cultural influences, thereby shaping global narratives and perceptions. This can foster greater understanding and cooperation among nations, transcending traditional divides and fostering a more interconnected world.

Furthermore, these new alliances have had a discernible impact on the traditional spheres of influence and the balance of power. New coalitions have prompted a reevaluation of geopolitical allegiances, compelling long-established powers to recalibrate their relationships and adapt to this evolving landscape. This, in turn, has triggered a realignment of global power structures, with significant implications for international relations and strategic maneuvering across all domains.

In conclusion, the political outcomes arising from new alliances underscore the transformative influence of coalition-based strategies on the contemporary geopolitical environment. As these alliances continue to evolve and assert themselves on the world stage, their enduring impact on political dynamics, global governance, and the pursuit of shared aspirations will undoubtedly continue to unfold.

Technological Influence on Global Configurations

The technological landscape is undergoing rapid and profound changes, exerting a meaningful impact on the configuration of global dynamics. Technological advancements have revolutionized how nations interact and have become instrumental in shaping international relations and power structures. The pervasiveness of digital technologies has enabled real-time communication, data sharing, and collaboration on an unparalleled scale. Consequently, it has blurred traditional geographic boundaries, fostering interconnectedness that transcends physical barriers.

Furthermore, the rise of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data analytics has empowered states to enhance their strategic decision-making processes, optimize resource allocation, and bolster national security measures. This has ushered in an era where technology plays a pivotal role in safeguarding national interests, projecting influence, and countering potential threats in the cyber realm.

The proliferation of cyber capabilities has transformed warfare and espionage, necessitating a reevaluation of conventional notions of security. Information warfare and cyber-attacks pose formidable challenges in this digital age, compelling nations to fortify their cyber defenses and engage in defensive and offensive cyber operations. The strategic significance of technological prowess has thus emerged as a critical determinant of a nation’s global standing, influencing its ability to assert dominance and protect its core interests.

Moreover, emerging technologies such as blockchain and quantum computing have the potential to disrupt existing economic and financial systems, redefining the nature of global commerce and trade. As these technologies mature, they could fundamentally alter the dynamics of international finance, offering new avenues for cross-border transactions, supply chain management, and regulatory oversight.

Beyond security and economic dimensions, technology has also catalyzed societal and cultural transformations, fostering the exchange of ideas, values, and norms across diverse populations. Social media platforms, mobile connectivity, and digital content dissemination have facilitated the amplification of voices, fueling social movements, and contributing to the global exchange of cultural perspectives.

In conclusion, technology's pervasive influence on global configurations is incontrovertible. It permeates all facets of human civilization and underscores the modern world's interconnectedness. Technology's continual evolution will undoubtedly shape the future landscape of international relations, exerting far-reaching implications on diplomacy, governance, trade, security, and human interaction.

Socio-Cultural Impacts and Public Perception

The socio-cultural landscape shapes public perception and attitudes towards global coalitions. Understanding the impact of culture, traditions, and societal norms is crucial in assessing the effectiveness and acceptance of multinational partnerships. Societies are interconnected through shared values, beliefs, and historical experiences, all influencing how individuals perceive international collaborations. Cultural differences can either be a stumbling block or a bridge builder in forming and sustaining coalition-based strategies.

Public perception, shaped by socio-cultural factors, influences a nation's willingness to engage in multilateral engagements. It determines the extent to which citizens are receptive to their country’s participation in international alliances. Furthermore, as a powerful influencer of public opinion, the media can significantly sway socio-cultural perceptions through its portrayal of global partnerships.

As societies evolve and cultures intermingle, new paradigms emerge, presenting opportunities and challenges for coalition-based strategies. The convergence of diverse civilizations within global governance frameworks necessitates a deep understanding of cross-cultural communication and sensitivity, cultivating a more inclusive and cohesive approach to navigating international relations.

Moreover, historical narratives, national pride, and collective memory can influence public sentiment toward coalition-based strategies. Perceptions of past victories, defeats, or diplomatic achievements may shape contemporary attitudes toward forming alliances and participating in cooperative endeavors.

Acknowledging the socio-cultural impacts on public perception provides insights into the potential success or resistance towards coalition-based strategies. Effective public diplomacy initiatives must consider cultural nuances and sensitivities, tailoring messaging and engagement approaches to resonate with diverse audiences across geographies.

In conclusion, acknowledging the socio-cultural impacts and understanding public perceptions are essential to strategizing and sustaining cooperation among nations. By fostering an awareness of cultural intricacies and actively engaging with diverse societies, coalition formations can navigate socio-cultural influences adeptly, fostering mutual understanding and strengthening global partnerships.

Challenges to Multilateralism

Multilateralism confronts numerous challenges in contemporary times as a concept and practice in global governance. One of the foremost challenges lies in the shifting dynamics of power and influence among nation-states as emerging economies assert themselves internationally. This presents a challenge to established multilateral institutions that were designed to reflect the power structures of the post-World War II era. The rise of unilateralism and protectionist policies by certain influential countries further undermines the efficacy of multilateral approaches to addressing global issues. Additionally, the inability of existing multilateral frameworks to keep pace with the rapid evolution of technology and its impact on global affairs presents another significant challenge. As cyberspace and digital economies increasingly shape geopolitics, there is a pressing need to reevaluate how multilateralism can effectively govern these domains. Moreover, the erosion of trust and confidence among member states within multilateral organizations poses a critical challenge. Diverging interests, conflicting priorities, and geopolitical rivalries often hinder consensus-building and collective action, impeding multilateral initiatives' effectiveness. Furthermore, the increasing skepticism and criticism of multilateralism by certain political factions and populist movements within several nations poses an internal challenge. These voices advocate for a retreat from international cooperation and prioritizing national interests over collective responsibilities. Such sentiments can undermine the cohesion necessary for successful multilateral action. Another significant challenge to multilateralism stems from structural constraints and bureaucratic inefficiencies within established international organizations. Adaptability and responsiveness to emerging global issues have been constrained by complex decision-making processes and bureaucratic hurdles, necessitating a reexamination of institutional frameworks. Finally, the lack of universal commitment to multilateralism and effective enforcement mechanisms for international agreements pose fundamental challenges. States with divergent ideologies and priorities may defy or circumvent multilateral decisions, undermining the foundations of collaborative governance. In navigating these multifaceted challenges, it becomes imperative to recalibrate multilateral approaches and institutions to better align with contemporary realities and engender sustainable solutions to complex global issues.

Outlook and Predictive Scenarios for Future Coalitions

The landscape of global politics is rapidly evolving, and as we confront the challenges of the 21st century, the formation of future coalitions will be pivotal in shaping international relations. One of the key predictive scenarios for future coalitions revolves around the emergence of new regional powerhouses challenging the traditional dominance of existing global players. As economic and technological advancements progress at an unprecedented pace, historically overshadowed countries are now positioning themselves to form strategic alliances to enhance their influence on the world stage.

Moreover, globalization's increasing interconnectedness means that non-state actors, such as multinational corporations, influential NGOs, and even online communities, have the potential to form coalitions that transcend national boundaries. These diverse coalitions could profoundly impact the socio-political landscape, adding new dimensions to traditional power structures and diplomatic relations.

Furthermore, climate change and environmental sustainability are expected to play pivotal roles in the formation of future coalitions. As the global community grapples with the urgency of addressing environmental crises, countries will likely form coalitions focused on promoting sustainable development, mitigating the impacts of climate change, and ensuring environmental stewardship. This alignment of interests in preserving the planet could lead to unprecedented collaborations between nations that were previously at odds, potentially reshaping the geopolitical dynamics.

Another plausible scenario for future coalitions lies in security and defense. With the growing prevalence of cyber threats, hybrid warfare, and unconventional security challenges, countries may seek to forge alliances dedicated to enhancing cybersecurity, sharing intelligence, and coordinating defense strategies. Additionally, the rise of non-traditional security threats, such as pandemics and mass migration, could prompt the establishment of novel coalitions to address these complex issues collectively.

Regarding economic partnerships, the transformative potential of technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence, and decentralized finance presents new opportunities for cross-border collaborations and trade alliances. Countries could leverage these innovations for mutual economic benefit, paving the way for innovative financial frameworks and intercontinental economic unions.

As we look towards the future, coalition-based strategies will continue to define the course of international relations. The fluidity of global challenges necessitates agile and adaptive alliances capable of responding to multifaceted issues. The dynamic nature of these predictive scenarios underscores the imperative for policymakers, diplomats, and global leaders to anticipate, engage with, and navigate the evolving landscape of coalition formations.

2

Historical Context and Formation of the G7

Origins of the G7: Post-World War II Economic Stability

The origins of the G7 can be traced back to the aftermath of World War II when global economies were grappling with the immense challenges of post-war reconstruction and economic stability. The devastating impact of the war had left Europe in ruins, with infrastructure destroyed and economies in disarray. At the same time, the United States emerged as a major economic powerhouse, fostering rapid industrialization and technological advancement. Recognizing the need for coordinated efforts to rebuild and stabilize the global economy, leaders from industrialized nations formed the Group of Six.

This coalition, initially comprising the United States, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan, sought to promote economic cooperation and foster stability through collective initiatives. The overarching objective was to prevent the recurrence of the economic strife that had paved the way for global conflicts. By promoting open trade, currency stability, and collaboration on economic policies, the member nations aimed to create a framework for sustained growth and prosperity.

The 1944 Bretton Woods Conference played a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape. It established key institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which provided the necessary financial mechanisms to regulate international monetary systems and facilitate economic recovery. This underscored the growing recognition of the interdependence of global economies and the need for a coordinated approach to ensure stability and growth.

As the group evolved into the Group of Seven with the inclusion of Canada, the focus on creating a forum for advanced industrialized democracies to address economic challenges became more pronounced. Through regular summits and discussions, the G7 aimed to coordinate economic policies, address trade imbalances, and promote initiatives to bolster economic stability. It also served as a platform for addressing critical issues such as energy crises, inflation, and exchange rate volatility.

Overall, establishing the G7 marked a significant milestone in post-World War II history, reflecting a commitment to collaborative economic governance and the pursuit of shared prosperity. By understanding the historical context and the foundational principles that underpin the G7’s formation, we gain valuable insights into the broader goals of international economic cooperation and the enduring legacy of this influential coalition.

Chronological Evolution from Group of Six to Group of Seven

The transformation from the Group of Six to the Group of Seven represents a significant chronological and geopolitical evolution in international economic governance. Emerging from the ashes of World War II, the initial collaboration among six major industrial powers—France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—laid the foundation for what would become the G7. The pivotal moment came in 1976 when Canada joined, marking the group’s transition into the G7. This expansion was aimed at broadening representation within the group and strengthening its global economic influence. Over the years, the G7 underwent notable shifts, adapting to changes in